The Informationist

Can’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow

Regretably, the more I think about tomorrow, the greater the nausea. I cannot recall ever feeling as dispirited heading into a major national election. Were there ever two houses deserved of the pox, todays Democrats and Republicans are they. Can they both lose?

Both of our major political parties can count numerous fine people and deep thinkers among their members. Regretably, all such decent types have been relegated to the sidelines. There isn’t a mensch in a leadership position anywhere in Washington. I could regale the left with a recounting of GOP absurdities, and the right with a comparable list of things the Dems would make worse, but why bother? The web and the airwaves are already replete with fodder for dogmatic true believers. If you want to hear why the other party’s ascendance would result in nuclear holocaust followed by plagues of locusts, go right ahead. If you prefer to dedicate a moment of silence lamenting the plight of our great nation, feel free in joining me to do so.

Nevertheless, it is always best to approach elections with a concrete question in mind. After all, ex ante concreteness helps guide ex post analysis.

So here’s my question: Whose leadership will emerge most chastised?

As things stand, the general expectation is that the Democrats will do VERY well. If they even come close--say by gaining control of either the House or the Senate--the party’s current leadership will earn accolades and entrench its position. Should the Republicans retain control of both chambers, the Democratic leadership will be cowed, even if their candidates make major gains. Reform within the Democratic party will be possible; new leaders might emerge intent on bringing the Party back to where it belongs--essentially, the path the Bill Clinton blazed tempered by the lessons of 9/11.

At the same time, any significant Republican losses will hit the leadership hard--even if the GOP retains control of both chambers. Unless the Republicans defy all predictions and suffer only minimal losses, look for a major shakeup. Hastert may be done as Speaker, whether his replacement is Pelosi, Boehner, or someone else. Outsiders like McCain, Giuliani, or possible even Romney may start to look good. More to the point, the Republican Party might rediscover its social libertarians, marry its uplifting neoconsevative rhetoric to a matching foreign and defense policy, and regain its affinity for fiscal responsibility.

So what do I hope? What do I expect? As a lifelong Democrat and a recently announced independent, my greatest hope would be for the Centerl-Left to retake the Democratic Party. I see almost no possibility of that occurring. I believe that the Dangerous Left is ascendant in Democratic circles. It may take a decade or more to come to full fruition--much as the Dangerous Right takeover of the GOP appeared likely in 1980, ratcheted forward in 1994, but didn’t reach full bloom until 1997--but it seems inevitable. The Netroots, Deaniacs, and their friends are going to have to take a serious drubbing tomorrow to derail their freight train. A guy can always hope, but I don’t see it happening.

My second choice, with the Democrats likely lost, is that the GOP move itself in a direction that I consider positive. Here, the prospects seem brighter. The party is tired, its leadership corrupt, and its constituents disgusted. As soon as this election is over, Republicans will have to choose between cleaning house on the one hand and continuing their inexorable slide into the minority (or their “fall from grace,” to use terminology that some might prefer). Of course, a mere decision to refocus the party hardly means a move in my direction. After all, just look at the Democrats.

So what do I hope? The best possible outcome would be Republican losses just larger enough to deny the Democrats a majority anywhere. Only that outcome has the potential to shake up the leadership in both parties.

What do I expect? My best-case scenario remains a possiblity, though a slight one. My second choice, a GOP gain significant enough to knock the loony left back to the Democratic sidelines, appears so unlikely as to barely warrant mention. That leaves me hoping for a Democratic victory significant enough to wipe out the GOP leadership, but not significant enough to eliminate leadership challenges among the Dems. By most indications, this outcome is what we will get. The worst of all possible outcomes, a Democratic blowout so significant that it locks the loony left in place while leaving the GOP more despondent than energized also appears possbile, though unlikely.

In short, my expectations are that for the next two years I will be an independent, working increasingly closely with positive elements of the GOP helping them to craft a new direction for the Republican Party.

How well will I do? For a short-term answer, watch TV tomorrow. For a long-term indication, check back in 2008.

Posted by Bruce Abramson from on 11/06 at 06:37 PM in American Government, Politics, and Domestic Policies